Thursday, December 20, 2007

SUB-PRIME QUICK FIX: Fed Again Overlooks Simple Solution In Favor of More Regulations and Increased Costs

In its first regulatory response to the sub-prime lending crisis, the Federal Reserve has recently passed rules that would prohibit lenders from making non-income verification loans. But these rules ignore the fact that the issuance of bogus mortgage loans, in which other people’s money was used to fund loans to unqualified borrowers were often facilitated by inflated property appraisals which made it appear that the home to be mortgaged was worth more than the loan. All this is being done in the name of protecting unsophisticated borrowers who are now facing foreclosure and personal financial ruin.

 

Does this remedy really attack the underlying problem? I think not. What it does do, is to impose another regulatory layer on the already over regulated, and therefore expensive, process of obtaining a mortgage. Each layer requires another professional to be involved in the home buying process and makes the process more costly.

 

Wouldn’t it be simpler, and far more effective if the Federal Reserve required all non-income verification loans to be non-recourse loans? By requiring these loans to be non-recourse, the lender would bear the financial responsibility (and risk) that the appraisal which supports the loan is accurate, and if it's not accurate, it's the lender who bears the risk. This would surely encourage lenders act more responsibly when engaging the property appraiser and would permit the market to regulate the supply and demand of this type of financing. A lender, which understood that its only recourse in the event that its borrower fell behind in his payments would be to repossess the property, would look more closely at the purported value of that property. And although no home mortgage borrower welcomes the possibility that he would be dispossessed, in the event of foreclosure, the borrower would have no personal liability for any difference between the amount due on the loan and the value of the property on the date of foreclosure. Borrowers would be shielded from the negative consequences of incurring additional debt, which they are unable to repay.

 

In addition, if the lender could only look to the value of the property to recoup its loan, the foreclosure sale process might become more equitable. Presently, the lender has every incentive to “dump” the foreclosed property and look to the borrower for the difference. If the loan were non-recourse, the lender might act more prudently to realize the maximum value from the foreclosed property, perhaps re-marketing it instead of placing it at auction. The inventory of foreclosed properties might then also be better managed to mitigate the collateral downward pressures imposed upon the housing market under the current scheme.

 

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Thursday, December 13, 2007

2008 Forecast: Subprime Woes Hit the Art Market

So, you thought that the subprime crisis was restricted to the real estate market? This past year, the leading auction houses greatly ramped up the rate at which they extended guarantees to consignors, assuring those consignors that if the consigned artwork did not sell at a minimum target price, the auction house would purchase the artwork from the consignor. By some estimates the total amount guaranteed this year was three times the amount guaranteed only one year ago. This is a very disturbing trend.

If you assume that the auction house estimate of the price range at which the artwork would sell is a reasonable indicator of the house’s view of the value of the artwork, then you conclude that its guarantee is a commitment to buy the artwork at less than its own estimate of fair market value. Hardly a very smart deal!

At the core of the subprime conundrum is a loan extended to a borrower who does not have sufficient credit or assets to justify the loan. If a credit deficient borrower borrows 110% of the value of his new home from the lender, the loan is subprime. Well, if the auction houses buy art from their consignors at prices above their own estimate of fair market value (say, 110% of the value of the artwork), that’s a subprime art transaction. The auction house is left holding an asset worth less than what it paid for it. In addition, the auction houses are not likely to hold art acquired in this manner for long durations; financial good sense mandates that these works will be sold quickly to minimize losses and close out the transaction.

To further aggravate the situation, the increased supply of artworks for sale will push prices further downward and increase the number of artworks that the auction houses will be forced to buy to honor their guarantees. Does this sound like an hysterical downward scenario? Well, it’s about as crazy as thinking that Merrill Lynch could lose $10,000,000,000 in one quarter attributable to its subprime loan portfolio.

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