Use caution in regards to growth of consumer goods turnover in 2008 Cost of energy, development at foreign exchange markets, exploding costs for health care, pension provisions, research and education, costs for fighting poverty, epidemics as well as terrorism, war and the consequences of war, rising costs for public service, securing and expanding infrastructures, fighting ecological destruction, development of new energies, protecting what is still whole in nature, fighting and lowering national debt – all of these problems are prevailing equally in countries of the First, Second and Third World and thus burden financial powers. People have to dedicate considerable financial resources to these problems and this is going to significantly affect consumption in the next year. Everywhere in the world even if there is a positive development of the global economy taking place. It’s not that consumption is going to collapse under these general burdens, but it is still going to change and we assume that it is going to change more and more sustained than many think during this time of a positive general mood. The consumer goods markets are going to shrink. But not the exterior outlines on the upper and lower edges of the individual markets or industries, but from the center. What we should wish for in 2008 What we should especially wish for in 2008: Regaining professionalism.
Wants and needs are going to get even more distinct outlines than has been the case in the past. Everything that can’t be clearly assigned is going to continue to disappear.
Meaning, people are going to purchase more prudently. They are going to use their considerable knowledge during selection and purchase of products and services.
Surely, there are needs that can be met, in regards to quality, with simple and modest products and services, especially through automated facilities. Price can be adequately low there. The consumer has long gotten used to buying packaged products from a carton or simple shelves. When it comes to satisfying needs, the advantageous price is an important sales tool. This is why discounters are going to be of even more significance in the near future.
However, when this is about fulfilling wants, satisfying wishes, then people are always willing to spend more money. In economically tough times this may be even more so than in good times. But even for products and services which do not serve fulfillment of demand it is imperative that the relation of the value of the product to the price has to be evident. Far more critical than in the past, people are going to watch out for a comprehensible immaterial value of Premium and Luxury goods and services when fulfilling wants and satisfying wishes. Most of all this means brands dominating the premium and luxury business have to offer value.
It is going to be problematic for those suppliers of products and services which are still present in the traditional and disused “center” of the market and without adequate substance and yet are offered as premium and luxury goods and brands.
If your planning includes growth for 2008 and the coming years you should rely less on the past but rather align your plans for growth with the possibilities, your products and services offer in regards to a clear profile.
Money available for consumption is becoming more valuable globally and the offer has to be designed correspondingly. If you are aware of this and look around accordingly, you are going to realize quickly that considerably more has to be done then just economizing and lowering costs. In order to keep the offer valuable and if necessary create a more valuable offer one has to be willing to invest into the market.
In general, there is plenty of knowledge. Dwindling professionalism of economic players costs the economy billions of Euros or dollars every year. The crisis in the money economy, unsatisfactory results in the automotive industry, the failure of many politicians, countless professional ‘blunders’ which can also happen to executive consultants, just to name a few ‘hot spots’, are attributable to dwindling professionalism. The deterioration of professionalism stems from a destruction of time gone wild. One gets increasingly the impression that he who has no time is good, important and in demand. One could almost think that people are trying to not have time, because they expect their prestige to increase and they would like to give the impression that without them nothing is happening. Recently, a German manager tried to justify his income amounting to millions by saying that, in general, he is working eighty (80) hours per week. Nobody called for his dismissal even though there is no more convincing evidence for inaptitude than a manager who is supposed to lead, working eighty hours per week. How sick is a society that does not feel that this is wrong, that does not feel it is running the risk of being lead by overstrained managers?
Professionalism has got something to do with maximum performance. In order to render a first class performance one has to have the ability to concentrate and bundle one’s energy to utilize one’s time at full capacity.
Those of us, who ask ahead of a conference why it is taking place and what the expected result is going to be, do have spare time. Only those of us who can express what is essential in only a few words, have time. He, who can live without an appointment book filled to the brim, has time. Only those of us, who can distinguish ability from inability and meaning from nonsense, do have spare time.
To have spare time means to keep calm and to keep the distance.
If we want to regain professionalism we need time to calmness and distance. And we have to fight a reckless fight against everything that robs us of time and calmness and against everything that curtails the distance and makes us feel cornered. If we want to regain professionalism, we need to eliminate the racket around us in order to get in touch with our inside, to listen to ourselves and to connect with our soul.
True professionalism requires harmony of body and soul. The New Year is still young and fresh enough to wish for something from the beginning. Surely, not just ‘something’, but the most important thing that is going to make us successful: Professionalism. Today there is hardly anybody in the position to say he owns his own living space and that he is always able to keep the healthy necessary distance so his environment. In this respect we are all invited to decidedly advocate reclaiming professionalism. He who has the time and the calmness, who is able to keep the distance, does not have to search for new management techniques and rules because he is going to be able to put lots on the right track. For us executive consultants this means that we are going to be able to be more of a partner in dialogue for our clients, instead of gathering broken pieces.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Consumer Goods: SchmidPriessler 2008 Forecast
